Life In The Fast Lane: An analysis of the induction opportunities for each 2020 RNR HOF Nominee

It’s been just over a week since the Rock N Roll Hall of Fame announced their 2020 nominations.  Depending on who you ask, the nominations either landed with a thud (Hall watchers online note the massive gender imbalance among nominees) or with enthusiasm (fans of the generally overlooked metal / hard rock genre saw much more representation than expected), but which artists have the best of chance of induction this year based on the composition of the ballot and which fans had best reserve their disappointment for the induction announcement?

With a ballot of 16 (generally well-qualified) nominees going out to voters who can only vote for “up to 5” nominated artists, the most important factor for induction may come down to:  Which artists have the least direct competition on the ballot?

As has been frequently observed in Oscar Nomination voting over the years, an actor with multiple great performances in the same year (most recently Amy Adams in 2016 with both “Arrival” and “Nocturnal Animals”) might end up splitting their votes evenly between the two performances, with neither getting enough votes to make the top 5 in their category.  With limited voting space on ballots, artists occupying similar genre and era spaces may end up splitting the votes available to them and falling short of the top 5-7 artists that get inducted.

So in a cluttered field of nominees, of nominees, which artists have the clearest path (or, shall we say “lane”) to induction in 2020?

The Carpool Lane (Next to no direct competition):

 

1.       Notorious B.I.G.

Genre: Hip Hop / Rap

Era: Early to Mid-90s

Direct / Indirect Competition: None

Contrary to what some would allege, in my opinion the RNR HOF has done a solid job of inducting Hip Hop artists in the early days of the genre’s eligibility.  Granted, they would have done well to include a few more of the less popular but highly influential acts that have been on the ballot in the past and LL Cool J remains a significant snub, but most of the biggest acts in the genre have gotten induction, several in their first year of eligibility.

FYE status is exactly what I expect for Notorious B.I.G. this year.  With no other hip hop / rap artists on the ballot and only tangential competition from Rufus (funk being a fore bearer of hip hop) and Whitney (who had some R&B hits, though mainly fit in the pop genre), anyone who feels that he’s worthy of induction will put him on their ballot.  Seeing as how there was enough hip-hop support to induct Tupac Shakur as an FYE, I fully expect the same honor for the similarly credentialed B.I.G.

2.       T. Rex

Genre: Glam Rock / Art Rock

Era: Late 60s to Mid-70s

Direct / Indirect Competition: None directly, though any Classic Rock band competes indirectly

T. Rex should be a tremendous beneficiary of the Hall’s 2019 “British Invasion” as the induction of Def Leppard, The Cure, Roxy Music and to a lesser extent Radiohead led to a lot of English rock stars who grew up listening to Mark Bolan and T. Rex (who were a phenomenon in England in a way they never were in America) being added to the conversation.  Their influence, along with the induction of Roxy Music certainly led to T. Rex being nominated for the first time this year.

One could easily argue that T. Rex will face competition from the other classic rock artists on the ballot this year, but style-wise I don’t see many voters tossing a coin to decide between T. Rex and Benatar or the Doobies.  Rundgren may pull some art rock votes away from T. Rex, but I also see his music occupying a very different space in the genre, so it’s a mostly clear path to induction if voters feel that they’re worthy.

3.       Whitney Houston

Genre: Pop / R&B

Era: Early 80s to Mid-90s

Direct / Indirect Competition: Rufus feat. Chaka Khan (indirectly)

Whitney is clearly occupying the ballot space opened up by Janet Jackson’s induction last year and while their careers aren’t perfectly aligned genre-wise (Whitney being more of a traditional pop singer (after early R&B / Dance hits) than Janet, who occupied a more R&B-oriented space), nominating them both on the same ballot would have been a mistake.

With Janet inducted, Whitney takes over as the next MTV-era diva to get her shot at the HOF.  The path to induction is fairly clear for her, though she may lose some votes to Chaka Khan, a comparable artist from a similar genre, though one from a different generation.

The main obstacle to Whitney’s induction on her first ballot is the same that haunted Janet for years: the perception that her music is not “rock”, an argument that loses its validity with each passing year, but still persists in the background among voters.

 

4-Lane Freeway (One direct competitor, but both likely to be inducted):

 

4.       Pat Benatar

5.       Doobie Brothers

Genre: Classic Rock

Era: 70s – mid-80s

Direct / Indirect Competition: Each other (directly), Hard Rock nominees (indirectly)

No genre of music has had an easier time gaining the support of Hall voters than Classic Rock, in large part because most of the voters either played Classic Rock or grew up in the era where it dominated rock radio.

Considering that most casual rock fans would be surprised to learn than Benatar and the Doobie Brothers weren’t already in the Hall, it seems like their inductions are imminent, even if they face more competition than some other acts (Benatar, in particular, may lose votes to fellow 70s / 80s rockers like Judas Priest or Thin Lizzy).

 

Two-Lane Highway (Unique nominees in unproven sub-genres):

 

6.       Soundgarden

Genre: Grunge / Hard Rock / Metal

Era: Late 80s / 90s

Direct / Indirect Competition: Nine Inch Nails (indirectly)

Technically a metal band, Soundgarden’s path to the Hall is enhanced in part because their career began a decade after the prime of the other metal bands on this year’s ballot but in large part due to the band’s connection to the “Grunge” sub-genre of alternative rock, a genre that saw FYE inductions from Nirvana and Pearl Jam, the only acts in the genre to enjoy more critical or commercial success than Soundgarden.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Soundgarden used their Grunge affiliation to leapfrog over the older metal acts and gain induction soon, if not this year.

7.       Todd Rundgren

Genre: Classic Rock / Art Rock / Pop

Era: 70s – Early 90s

Direct / Indirect Competition: Any Classic Rock Nominee (indirectly)

A popular act among his fellow musicians due to his long career and work as both an artist and producer, Rundgren likely came close to induction last year and will likely come close again this year.  He doesn’t really face much direct competition on this ballot, nor would he on most ballots.

8.       Depeche Mode

Genre: New Wave / Electronic

Era: 80s – 90s (Still active)

Direct / Indirect Competition: Kraftwerk, Nine Inch Nails (indirectly)

Critical and commercial success propel Depeche Mode to the forefront of the New Wave / Electronic / Post-Punk genre in the eyes of the Rock Hall.  The genre is both a rich vein of talent that could be mined for years of inductees but also one that the voters have yet to warm up to, leading the Nom Com to limit the genre to one per ballot, a strategy that helped The Cure gain induction in 2019.  Competition from genre mates Kraftwerk and Nine Inch Nails will have a limited impact as each band had their own era to themselves.

The main question regarding Depeche Mode’s chances is whether the voters view The Cure as a singular artist worth inducting, regardless of genre, or if they’ve decided to further embrace the genre and open the flood gates for the foreseeable future.

9.       Nine Inch Nails

Genre: Industrial / Electronic / Alternative Rock

Era: Late 80s – Present

Direct / Indirect Competition: Depeche Mode, Kraftwerk, Soundgarden (indirectly)

The Nom Com indicated that Nine Inch Nails was their next highest priority among 90s alternative rock acts after Nirvana, Green Day and Pearl Jam were inducted.  They were deprioritized for two years when Radiohead took their spot on the ballot, but with Thom Yorke and co. inducted, the slot belongs to NIN again and they stand a good chance of using their position to gain induction in 2020.

One band that may throw a wrench in their plans is Soundgarden.  While the two bands weren’t exactly in direct sub-genre competition, they were both popular alternative rock acts in the late 80s and 90s and voters may split their 90s alt-rock votes between the two bands or favor the more radio-friendly Soundgarden.  It’s unlikely both will get in on the same ballot.

10.   Dave Matthews Band

Genre: Roots Rock / Pop

Era: 90s - Present

Direct / Indirect Competition: None really

While I personally think that they’re the “least worthy” artist on this year’s ballot (though still worthy of eventual induction) and that there are a handful of 90s rock acts that should have been nominated / inducted before DMB, their massive success and support among their fan base can’t be denied.  While I do think Phish are the true heir to the Grateful Dead’s legacy, DMB has successfully followed that model with nearly as much success.

I honestly have no idea how much any of that matters to the Rock Hall voters, but an induction this year seems unlikely, given they have no competition on this year’s ballot.  If voters want to vote for an act like DMB, they will do so, no question.

 

Speed Traps (Little direct competition, but proven lack of support on past ballots):

 

11.   Kraftwerk

Genre: Electronic / Art Rock

Era: 70s – Early 80s

Direct / Indirect Competition: Depeche Mode, Nine Inch Nails (indirectly)

Arguably the Rock Hall’s biggest snub, Kraftwerk has a bulletproof case for induction, having all but invented a genre of music (and the instruments required to perform it) that influenced many of the innovative genres to follow (EDM, hip hop, industrial).  Mainstream success and the support of the voters are the only thing keeping them out of the Hall.

The only direct competition Kraftwerk faces is from more popular bands that came later, though I think that the innovator card should keep votes from going their way instead of to Kraftwerk.

12.   MC5

Genre: Punk / Classic Rock

Era: Late 60s, Early 70s

Direct / Indirect Competition: None in particular

Along with the Stooges, the MC5 stood as the vanguard of proto-punk, the genre that would eventually evolve into punk and save rock n roll from itself.  Just like Kraftwerk, the lack of mainstream success will probably keep the MC5 out of the Hall, even though there isn’t any direct competition pulling votes from them.

13.   Rufus feat. Chaka Khan

Genre: Funk / R&B

Era: 70s – Early 80s

Direct / Indirect Competition: Whitney Houston (indirectly) 

Were it not for the multiple previous nominations for Rufus / Chaka Khan, I would have placed them in the first category.  They don’t face any direct competition, though the “black female vocalist” description does fit both Chaka and Whitney, so they’ll undoubtedly split votes in a way that “white male vocalists” never seem to.

Without access to voting information, it’s hard to say whether or not Rufus is being nominated year in and year out because of how close they are to induction or because a group of Nom Com members wants them on the ballot for their own reasons, but until they’re inducted they remain in the limbo of “Should be inducted, so why aren’t they?”

 

Gridlocked traffic that's so jammed up you could listen to a full album by Traffic before moving a mile (three artists occupying the same genre, era and voters):

 

14.   Judas Priest

Genre: Metal / Hard Rock

Era: 70s - Present

Direct / Indirect Competition: Motorhead, Thin Lizzy (directly)

Chronologically the next legendary Heavy Metal band that should be inducted (and likely the reason why the more popular Iron Maiden hasn’t been nominated yet), Priest has a 50 year legacy of great music (some of which crossed over into mainstream Classic Rock) and Rob Halford has an iconic voice and look, which should seemingly make the band a strong contender for induction by now except for one factor:

The rock hall voters don’t respect Metal.

Will that change now that Bon Jovi and Def Leppard (admittedly poppier, more mainstream versions of the original genre) have been inducted?  Quite possibly, which leads to the next reason why Priest is destined to get snubbed:

The Nom Com put three metal acts on the ballot, making it nearly guaranteed that they’ll split the votes of the limited number of voters who would vote for a Metal act.

15.   Motorhead

Genre: Metal / Hard Rock

Era: Late 70s / 80s

Direct / Indirect Competition: Judas Priest, Thin Lizzy (directly)

One could argue that Motorhead should have to wait for the induction of Judas Priest and probably Iron Maiden before it was “their turn” representing Metal in the Hall, but Motorhead does have an additional punk legacy (their style borrows from late 70’s punk bands like Ramones and helped to create speed and thrash metal) that helped them find a way to the ballot.

Motorhead has the same problem that Judas Priest does, though they probably have a less likely path to induction this year.

16.   Thin Lizzy

Genre: Hard Rock / Metal

Era: 70s / Early 90s

Direct / Indirect Competition: Judas Priest, Motorhead (directly)

It’s hard to say whether Thin Lizzy or the Dave Matthews Band are the biggest surprise on this year’s ballot, but I think that Thin Lizzy is by far the biggest long-shot, as they’re limited by direct competition on the ballot from Priest and Motorhead (both of whom loom much larger in the genre) and a limited radio legacy in the United States.

 

Summary 

 

In summary, it is my opinion that the current voting scenario of a large ballot (16 artists) with a low number of available votes per voter (up to 5 votes) dictates that (in the absence of “no-brainer” candidates) the artists with the best chance of induction are the ones that face the least amount of direct competition, meaning that while hard rock fans and metalheads may be excited by their genre’s oversized representation on the ballot, they are likely to be disappointed when the inductees are announced.

My predicted inductees:

Notorious B.I.G.
T. Rex
Whitney Houston
Pat Benatar
The Doobie Brothers

(If more than 5)

Soundgarden
Todd Rundgren